There are some things in life and business we can be certain of. The death and taxes adage attributed to Benjamin Franklin comes to mind. Another, which I’ve witnessed throughout my career, is to make cuts in a recession.

Last month, JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon shared a gloomy economic outlook by forecasting the economy could be in for a hurricane, warning that the Federal Reserve has only has a 33% chance to avoid a recession, and declaring, “With all this capital uncertainty, we’re going to have to take actions.”

So, is it time for leaders to do the predictable thing and cut marketing? Not so fast.

We don’t need to look back too far to examine the pros and cons of cutting marketing during a time of economic uncertainty. During the first months of the coronavirus pandemic, Sequoia Capital advised its portfolio founders and CEOs to “question every assumption about your business” and included marketing in its list of areas for consideration. (Read my take from April 2020)

A few months later, Harvard Business Review argued against cutting marketing in a recession and cited a study by the International Journal of Research in Marketing based on market data that showed proactive marketing during a recession can create competitive market advantage.

There’s an important nuance in the guidance from Sequoia about marketing spending. In no way does it instruct leaders to cut marketing. Rather, it recommends seeking a clear return on investment or ROI on marketing (which marketers should be doing anyway!):

With greater economic and fundraising uncertainty, you might even want to consider raising the bar on ROI for marketing spend.

Similarly, the HBR article encourages leaders to re-think how they direct their marketing spend. I can assure you that your company is currently burning cash on marketing activities that fail to move the needle in a meaningful way that translates into outcomes that help take your business to the next level.

We advise clients if they need to cut something, cut something else and, instead, invest in mindshare. This often means decoupling the mindshare spend from the marketing spend. (Read more about the difference between mindshare and marketing)

That’s because mindshare plays an integral role in next level success – whether it’s launch, growth or exit – because it influences what prospects, customers, partners, employees, job seekers, investors, media, analysts, competitors, and other influencers think and believe about your company including the products and services. (Read more about mindshare and next level outcomes)

Positive mindshare is a powerful asset that helps companies punch above their weight class. Mindshare ensures your company is viewed as an innovator and thought leader; it convinces buyers to believe your company can solve their problems; and it influences partners to rank your company as the top solution. In short, positive mindshare fosters next level outcomes. (Learn more about the correlation between mindshare and market share)

Most importantly, mindshare supports business objectives and aligns with ROI and Return on Relationship or RoR accountability metrics. (Learn more about how mindshare drives RoR)

Regardless of the economic climate – whether it’s headwinds or tailwinds; hurricanes or sunny days; recessions or boom markets – mindshare should never be on the chopping block; if push comes to shove, cut something other than mindshare.